Wednesday, April 14, 2010

Revisiting the SPY Trend

The S&P 500 has been on a tear. How healthy is this trend. Let's first take a look at the long term charts.

  • Spy is approaching the underside of the cloud. In otherwise, it's about to enter a resistance zone. 
  • The uptrend since last March has been almost as vertical on the way up then on the way down.
  • SPY has an opening in the cloud that ICHIMOKU is forecasting towards the end the year. 
  • The trend indicators all look very healthy and are confirming the uptrend

  • Weekly trend is still bullish. It is overbought, but has been for a while.
  • NOTE: the downtrend line Oct 2008 has been broken through with a successful retest
  • Weekly indicators are also confirming the uptrend.
  • Thus, any pull back on the daily chart should represent a "BUY" opportunity
  • SPY is extremely overbought on the daily chart. Some may say this is a sign of "strength", however, I say this is a sign of weakness in the $USD ...

The long term trends in the monthly and weekly charts are running into strong resistance. A closer look at the weekly $USD chart shows that the downtrend is resuming. On the daily chart, the $USD is currently oversold. The cloud should provide some support in the short term. Look for a back test of the broken downtrend for a shorting opportunity.

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